The coming monsoon is currently being awaited across the country including Gujarat and different agencies are making various predictions about the monsoon rainfall in the year 2024.
Last year, monsoon rainfall was less than the long-term average. Only two out of the four monsoon months in Gujarat received good rainfall. After good rains in June and July, there was very little rain in August and September.
According to some weather experts, last year El Nino had an effect on the monsoon and due to this, the rains decreased in the later months.
El Nino is at its peak till February this year and is likely to have a heavy impact till summer, meaning that summer is likely to experience extreme heat this year.
All eyes are on how El Nino will affect the coming monsoon of 2024. El Niño affects the monsoons of India and due to this the rainfall in the country is less.
How will the monsoon of 2024 be, will there be more rain?
The India Meteorological Department provides a forecast of rainfall during the four monsoon months of April and May. Also, private weather agency Skymet also predicts how the monsoon will be in the month of April.
According to various agencies and meteorological experts, there is a possibility of good rains in monsoon next year as per the current situation. However, a better forecast of monsoon can be found only in April and May.
As per the preliminary forecast released by Skymet in January, the country is likely to have a good monsoon. According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet, the monsoon is likely to be normal this year, which means that monsoon rains are likely to be good.
According to him, last year’s monsoon was influenced by El Nino. It is now being seen that the influence of El Niño on the monsoon of 2024 will be less.
Speaking to news agency PTI, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Madhavan Rajeev said, ‘Even if El Nino turns neutral, there is a possibility that monsoon rains will be better this year than last year.’
70 percent of the total rainfall in India falls in the four months of the monsoon and agriculture throughout the country depends on this rainfall. Monsoon rainfall affects both kharif and rabi crops in the country.
India received below average rainfall in the 2023 monsoon. Normally 868.6 mm of rain should fall during the four months of monsoon, as against 820 mm of rain received across the country in 2023.
Will El Niño affect next monsoon?
The effects of El Nino and La Nina occurring in the Pacific Ocean are seen all over the world. This year El Nino conditions are at their peak and due to this the temperature is increasing all over the world.
Generally, Asia including India receives very good rainfall when La Nina conditions occur in the Pacific Ocean and less rainfall occurs when El Nino conditions occur i.e. El Nino affects the Indian monsoon.
According to Jatin Singh, director of private weather agency Skymet, the El Nino condition will weaken when the next monsoon begins. Before monsoon reaches India, the Pacific Ocean will become neutral rather than El Nino and then La Nina will begin.
Meteorological organizations around the world are monitoring the El Nino situation and some of them predict that the El Nino will weaken by the time the monsoons begin in India and La Nina conditions are likely to develop by August.
According to the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 55 percent chance that El Nino will weaken to La Nina in the Pacific Ocean between June and August. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has also said that El Nino is weakening.
This is good news for the Indian Monsoon as the El Nino conditions will change by the onset of the next Monsoon. Many weather experts say that monsoon rains in India are expected to be better this year than last year.
However, it is difficult to accurately predict the upcoming monsoon at present and the situation may change in the coming days due to continuous weather changes.
What could be the change in monsoon conditions in Gujarat?
Gujarat received good rainfall in the first two months of the 2023 monsoon, with very little rainfall in the last two months. In which, in the month of August, there was a decrease of more than 90 percent in the average rainfall. Many experts believe that El Nino has had an impact on the monsoons of 2023 and beyond on India.
If La Nino occurs in the Pacific Ocean in the next monsoon, India is likely to receive good rainfall due to it. Due to which the production of Kharif and Rabi crops will also increase.
Generally, during La Nina, the areas of Central India and South India receive good rainfall and other Asian countries also experience an increase in rainfall.
However, La Niña does not necessarily benefit the monsoon as it has caused rain in the last months of the monsoon and beyond in many years. That is, rain occurs at the time of crop harvesting and due to this the farmers also suffer financial loss.
Apart from this, floods and landslides also occur in many areas due to heavy or heavy rains. In many cases, property is also damaged.
As per the current preliminary forecast, there is a possibility of good rains in Gujarat along with India if the La Nina condition occurs.
What is El Nino?
According to American Geosciences, the terms El Niño and La Niña refer to periodic changes in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Which affects the season of the whole world.
Simply put, El Nino causes an increase in temperature and La Nina causes a decrease in temperature.
This phenomenon of El Nino and La Nina takes place thousands of kilometers away from India in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino conditions are created when warm water starts coming to the surface of the sea along the coast of the South American country of Peru.
El Niño is a phenomenon caused by changes in ocean temperature and atmospheric conditions. This change causes the ocean temperature to rise significantly above normal. A rise of 4 to 5 degrees Celsius is possible.
Due to which its effect is seen on the weather around the world. Especially in countries including India, Vietnam and Australia, there is a change in the monsoon. That is, monsoon rains decrease in these countries and drought conditions may also occur in many areas.
source: bbc.com/gujarati
